Bye Bye Food: Spilled Milk #36
Why our favorite foods might disappear forever.
I was reading this in Brian Stelter’s Reliable Choices newsletter last night:
With President Biden set to sign the Democrats' sweeping climate change and health care bill into law on Tuesday, here is something to consider: More is getting done in DC than the "prevailing narrative" would lead you to believe. At least that's the case Farah Stockman makes in this new article for New York Times Opinion… It's causing Americans — and people around the world — to lose faith in democracy as a model of governance."
Something struck me as odd and relatable, because on the flip side there is BIGGER news that isn’t getting the attention it should AND has existential disaster written all over it. And I am not Chicken Little.
Stockman’s point is that more is getting done than you realize.
Here is something that LESS is getting done about…
And despite the major pieces of legislation passed by Congress and signed at the White House today: Our food system is going to get slammed with a Category 5 hurricane of shortages and price increases and while some great reporting is being done, consumer awareness is low.
And what’s even crazier is that while we buy cars every 10 years and houses maybe once in our lives, we shop for food and eat it every day. Restaurants will be changing menus and food policies, and costs will continue to soar on almost every item in your grocery cart even as we watch gas prices drop and interest rates settle down.
So to pick up where Stockman left off above:
I am losing faith in our messaging system to the average American about our climate crisis and its impact on our food system. What do we have to do to get everyone’s attention?
Case in point: Two or three weeks ago I watched a stunning 60 Minutes segment on climate and the nation’s beef industry. With record heatwaves this summer, selloffs have been rampant and herd production is low. We will be paying more for beef in 2023 according to every expert we’ve heard from in this piece and on the front pages of our papers. But maybe you don’t eat beef a lot? Maybe those prices climbing 20-25 percent don’t scare you?
Well, how about this? According to reports, the drought in the west is so historic that the Colorado River is drying up at a record pace, which is why our nation’s largest reservoirs, Lake Powell and Lake Mead, are draining so fast. The river is being taxed beyond its limits and the entire region is desperately arid, so the US government is preparing to make mandatory water cuts and asking states to make emergency preparations to save the river basin/system.
Today, the US Bureau of Reclamation plans to announce the first ever Tier 2 water shortage for the Lower Colorado Basin. The next step will be for them to demand that the seven states that make up the basin voluntarily cut usage by 25 percent. If they don’t, the USG will step in to do so.
And that’s catastrophic when you consider this news from the farms themselves…
The current drought conditions — it’s been nine or 10 years at this point — are causing the biggest tomato shortage we’ve ever seen. So look for the price of everyday processed and canned goods (think ketchup, salsa, marinara sauce, frozen pizza, etc.) to surge in coming weeks and stay high for quite a while. According to a report, Mike Montna, the head of the California Tomato Growers Association, “we are getting to a point where we don’t have inventory left to keep fulfilling the market demand.”
And why is that a really, really bad thing? Because California grows 25 percent of the world’s tomatoes! The threats to the entire southwestern agricultural system are real and at the bare minimum we will all be paying more for anything tomato related — and there will be shortages.
The Consumer Price Index has seen an 8.5 percent increase year over year as of last month. That’s bad. But the cost of spices, seasonings, condiments, sauces etc. rose by 14.2 percent. And it will get worse. That figure was based on old inventory, not the current record low production number of this year’s crop. Currently as of a month ago, based on last year’s shortages and projections of an even worse season now, tomato sauce is up 17 percent and ketchup is up 23 percent.
Farmers see no end of the crisis in sight, although the Inflation Reduction Act should help, Montna pointed out, “On one side you have the drought impacting costs because you don’t have enough water to grow all your acres, and then you have the farm inflation side of it with fuel and fertilizer costs shooting up.”
As far as you and I are concerned, we are paying as much as 80 percent more for tomato paste year over last.
And remember, farmers can’t keep up with increased demand, and the climate is to blame. There is no water to grow more crops. So without H2O and increased ancillary costs, farmers aren’t planting more acres of the varietals of tomatoes used for processing.
At what point is there more consumer advocacy for climate solutions? Do more everyday food items need to become even more expensive? Seems to me that frozen pizza and jars of commercial pasta sauce are about as everyday as it gets.
For now, our heads are in the sand, and with species eradication in our oceans and waterways, decreased production in our cattle industry, and the threats to other crops like Florida citrus, Cavendish bananas, cacao, grapes and others, our favorite foods may not just get harder to find and more expensive, they might disappear forever.
<rant>This is a very interesting issue that I have approached mostly as a professional in the wildlife conservation world, where ag as an industry NEVER seems to work cooperatively to reduce its water use, and doesn't give a rat's ass if critical wetland habitats go bone dry (most notably, the Lower Klamath and now Tule Lake national wildlife refuges). That seven-state Colorado River deal? When they came together a few years back to iron out what all water users would do if water levels hit certain lows, the ONLY party that would not come to any agreement was the Imperial Water District, which of course represents ag.
Up in the Klamath Basin, farmers sucked water out of Tule Lake for crop after crop of not tomatoes or lettuce for human consumption, but alfalfa that was being shipped abroad, mostly to Saudi Arabia. While they were doing that, an entire grebe nesting colony failed because water levels dropped so low that coyotes started walking through the wetlands, and the adults abandoned their nests within 24 hours.
Other ag interests up there fought tooth and nail when a conservation org bought a water right from a willing seller (a cattle rancher) to send the water to a bone-dry national wildlife refuge. No one was taking a damn thing from them, but they did not want any net loss of water to ag, even if it was willingly sold, wildlife be damned (as if we haven't screwed wildlife enough already).
One caveat: Many individual farmers do not behave this way, but the organizations that represent them generally DO.
So, yes, we need to be very concerned about how climate change is affecting ag, but we also need to be very concerned about the choices ag is making. The ONLY way we get through the horrific water crisis in the West is for all parties to come to the table and get smarter about how we're using an overcommitted resource. That is the key problem: The government overcommitted, and the water-rights system here locks in the idiocy. My vote would be for farmers to focus on feeding Americans, not Saudi horses, and preferably feeding good stuff to Americans, not cashing in on crops that are destined for ultra-processed garbage that makes humans sick.</rant>
Brav-O Andrew, exceptional perspective on climate, food and their intertwined relationship. I believe one major part of the issue is... Americans take food for granted, if we can't grow-it, we'll just import it, because there's plenty of food available globally... which makes me roll my eyes & shake my head when I hear the foolish shallowness and ignorance of the American consumer...
We use to be like the Japanese, who looked 10, 15, 20 years in advance to predict such issues, thus knowing to plan for the future. 50 years ago, Americans did think more long-range, mapping out a future that could deal with economic tides... In the last 35 years that thinking has eroded to short-sighted thinking, 2 to 4 years... because 5 years is way too unpredictable... yet not if one anticipates.!?!
NOW, thanks to our politicians, we're been forced to evolve into a "Crisis Management" style of governing our economy... just look at FEMA, it can hardly save itself... they've become an "Oxymoron" agency... perhaps rename it, "Federal Emergency Moronic Agency"... just a thought...
My real frustration is having the ability to predict these tides, and doing little to nothing, even though we know it's coming. Climate change has been a surging issue for 30+ years... we've know this, yet we wait, WHY??? – ask Al Gore...
I was raised with the utmost respect for nature & food resources, perhaps that needs to be part of the education of our young generations...??? Field trips can be a very impactful and an eye-opening experience youngsters... those trips opened my eyes, making me think what I'd want to be when I grow-up, and able to make my mark in the world...
Fortunately, between my friends with large vegetable & herb gardens, along with my humble patch of dirt I call a garden, I can make a lot of things people regularly buy... yet, even if people grew more of their own, that would be far from what's needed to truly tackle this serious global issue...
We should ALL tip our hats and toast those organizations & individuals who are making an effort to create a true difference, and they have; along with educating the public to all be more environmentally consciences... that maybe the ultimate solution...
Thanks Andrew for writing such a truly impactful article... this is one reason why I encourage my friends to subscribe to Spilled Milk, thanks for your insightfulness, it's more than a gift...